I know you might have heard on revenge in many articles when it comes down to sports betting, but does revenge, talking about NFL picks, have anything to do with profiting from NFL picks?
Well, it does sometimes, sometimes it does not, just like with any other sport. When looking at this kind of trends, i like to do it by beginning with all games that suit that trend. ,If you take a look at last twenty seasons at teams that lost in their last matchup with their opponent and were favorites in that last game, you can see that no advantage exists for teams that are on revenge. This is the state in both situations whether last game was played in current or previous seasons.
Now lets take a look at what goes on if this matchup should be so called “underdog revenge” i.e. if team failed to win that last game as a dog and is underdog again. Well, then that dogs get small edge. (52.3% win against the spread). This appears as a surprise, doesn’t it?
If we take this further in our quest for favourable NFL picks, and look at underdog teams that are on a double “underdog revenge” i.e. they failed to win last two games versus their opponent as a dog (and are getting + points again), we come to a profitable info: in 54.2% cases, its gonna be worthwhile to bet on that team. Now this is even more surprising!
You might ask why doesn’t it work out like in some other sports, when favourites that don’t win get revenge in next game? Simply said: because teams have limited amount of games. And they don’t get excited and passionate for a revenge because so much time has passed.
Why do former dogs get excited about a revenge chance? The truth is they truly aren’t all that eager to win the game. Because my conclusions are made watching a closing lines, the only answer is: line has moved. Line will need to move is merely 1,5 points to give us this sort of benefit. It is very much expected cause amateur bettors put to much value on past matchups.
This dead easy NFL system will give you 50-60 picks each year and one must have a good reason to oppose it.