Many people are as a rule betting good teams that can pass, the ones with good quarterback, when betting on pro football. Does it really have a positive impact on game resolution, or is it just bettor mistake again? Lets begin broad with this, looking at all teams which have averaged more passing yards than their opposition.
The result is 49,1% win vs spread.
They are wrong, one might think. I don’t think they are not right about which team is better. Since these squads are favorites more often than underdogs. Casual cappers don’t understand mathematics of betting. You must every time compare squads vs spread, and not only vs. another team. On average game 70% casual cappers lay their green on favorites.
What happens if superior passing team is lets say, 50+ yards better averagely. It gets even worse then – they are 48,6 ATS. You come to same outcome if you look at teams offensive and defensive passing yards. Those teams which pass more than they allow passing yards, are not doing well likewise .
What if we combine those two components together? Here are results.
1. Team passes more yards than allows passing yards and passes more yards the their opponent – 48,4% ATS on very big sample.
2. Same as above, only with at least 50 yards more this time – 46,7 % covered.
Here is the point: don’t trust much in passing game when making NFL picks, it makes the line move. Good passing squads clearly get much more respect from amateur handicappers. Knowing this lets look for above average defensive squads that don’t give up too many passes? Hm, i think we might be on something. Teams conceding less passing yards than opposing team are 50,8% against the spread. Looks like we are right this time. Let summarize.
Casual cappers love to bet on squads with quarterbacks making passing plays. It looks good, and helps amateur cappers believe they put money on sure thing, nonetheless they have to bet the opposite.